Objectives:

The aim of this work package is double fold. Initially, existing models developed by the partners called hereafter as “base-line” models will be set-up for a set of case-studies defined in WP-1. Then, using sets of data, prediction results will be produced covering sufficiently long periods. The development of ANEMOS shell and database in WP-6 will provide the possibility to host the data and interface with base-line models so that these prediction results can be easily compared to models developed in the project, but also, in order to examine the performance of combined models. In a second stage, the off-line evaluation of the models developed in the project will follow. The results from base-line models will permit benchmarking and extensive evaluation of the benefits from the developments in the project. Appropriate case-studies will be defined in WP-1 to cover a wide variety of environments, flat and complex terrain, on and offshore wind farms; also different forecasting horizons, from minutes to days; and different spatial scales, from the wind farm to the region.

This work package will undertake the challenging task to compare output of meteorological models for a number of selected sites. The conclusions are expected to be very critical for selecting the appropriate NWP systems for wind forecasting applications using cost/benefit analysis.

Finally, appropriate criteria will be defined for the evaluation of the methods with emphasis to their performance in extreme weather conditions, as well as their robustness in on-line operation conditions. The evaluation of the performance of the applied techniques will be done in off-line mode, using the historical database created in WP1. The validation of the models in on-line operation will continue in WP6 after the installation of ANEMOS at the selected sites.

The results of this work package will be crucial for the development of the project. The error estimation methodology will be used throughout the life of the project in order to assess the performance of the different models. The test cases will provide results, which will be the guidelines to develop the prediction models.

Description of Work:

Project flow-chart

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